Glassnode’s Nov 11 report shows stablecoin supply shrinking, U.S. spot BTC ETFs seeing net redemptions and a widening Coinbase discount, while larger wallets begin to accumulate.
Glassnode released a new market‑structure analysis on Nov 11, 2026, warning that Bitcoin is “running on empty” as liquidity drains and short‑term holders move into loss territory. The firm points to a confluence of factors – a sharp contraction in stablecoin supply, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a widening discount on Coinbase – that together limit the capital available to lift the price back above its short‑term cost basis of $75.6 K.
According to Glassnode, stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2 billion over the last 30 days, marking the steepest decline since June 2022. The drop reduces the pool of on‑chain dollars that can be swapped for Bitcoin, a dynamic the analytics firm says is “pressuring relatively recent investors.” At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) have experienced $1.6 billion of net redemptions across 20 trading sessions, indicating waning institutional demand.
Glassnode’s on‑chain data shows a mixed picture in the order book. Bids dominate asks below $73 K, and sizable resting bids sit between $68 K and $72.5 K, while liquidity thins above $77 K and only sparse orders extend toward $84 K. Liquidation clusters are evident around $59.5 K–$62.6 K on the downside and near $87.5 K on the upside. Notably, two wallet cohorts – those holding 100‑1,000 BTC and 1,000‑10,000 BTC – have resumed accumulation, even as smaller investors and the very largest holders continue to distribute Bitcoin.
Derivatives data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin options open interest at roughly 440,000 BTC ($33 billion), with calls at 55.7% and puts at 44.3%, yielding a put‑to‑call ratio of 0.79. The largest contracts are Coinbase‑Deribit calls at $81 K (Nov 13 expiry) and $80 K (Dec 25 expiry), each holding over 8,000 BTC in open interest. However, the looming Nov 13 expiration could force traders to adjust positions if the price does not move toward those strikes. Prediction markets present a more cautious outlook. Polymarket’s November Bitcoin price market, with $5.17 million of total volume, assigns a 91% probability to the price touching $75 K, but only a 1% chance of reaching $100 K. A broader 2026 price‑touch market on Polymarket, holding $84.26 million, places the highest probability (61%) on a $70 K outcome. Kalshi’s November maximum‑price market, with $1.34 million in volume, gives a 19% chance of exceeding $82.5 K, reflecting a modest upside bias.
The next few weeks will test whether the renewed buying from mid‑size wallets can offset the outflows from ETFs and the shrinking stablecoin base. Key price levels to monitor include the $75.6 K short‑term holder cost basis, the $77.5 K true market mean, and the $77.8 K “election‑day” closing level identified by Glassnode. Additionally, the outcome of the Nov 13 $81 K and $84 K call expirations could reshape the options‑open‑interest landscape and signal whether market participants remain bullish or shift further into protective puts.
A smaller stablecoin supply reduces the amount of on‑chain dollars that can be swapped for Bitcoin, limiting upward price pressure.
The biggest November contracts – $81 K and $84 K calls on Deribit – expire on Nov 13, 2026.
Wallets holding between 100‑1,000 BTC and 1,000‑10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation, according to Glassnode.
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