BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes warned on Thursday that the wave of share unlocks expected from upcoming artificial‑intelligence IPOs could create a liquidity crunch that would pressure Bitcoin, according to an essay titled “D is for Dilution.” Hayes, who runs the investment firm Maelstrom, said the dilution risk and the resulting credit tightening could limit dollar funding for crypto markets until central banks intervene.

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AI IPOs and potential share dilution

Hayes focused on three AI‑centric companies—Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI—whose public listings are slated for 2026‑2027. Using Anthropic’s filing, he estimated that early public investors could see as much as 83% dilution by June 2027, a figure derived from the volume of shares slated to become tradable after lock‑up periods expire. For SpaceX, Hayes calculated that roughly 8.6 billion additional shares could be released, representing about half of the current share count. OpenAI’s timeline is less certain, but Hayes projected a similar pattern of employee and early‑investor sales following a presumed January IPO.

Liquidity implications for Bitcoin

Hayes argues that a steep decline in AI stock prices would make lenders more cautious, raising yields on corporate bonds and tightening the flow of credit to technology firms. Because many banks finance AI infrastructure projects and hold related securities, a pullback in lending could reduce the amount of new dollar liquidity entering the broader financial system. “Reduced dollar liquidity would create difficult trading conditions for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” Hayes wrote, citing a recent dip in U.S. commercial bank balance sheets as an early signal.

Potential central‑bank response and Bitcoin outlook

Despite the short‑term risk, Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory. He expects that a severe AI‑financing strain could prompt central banks to ease monetary policy or deploy other liquidity‑boosting measures. In his view, such intervention would eventually benefit Bitcoin, aligning with his earlier forecast of a $1 million price target by 2030. For now, Maelstrom will stay on the sidelines until liquidity conditions improve.

What to watch next

Investors should monitor the SEC filings of Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI for exact lock‑up schedules and share‑release dates. Additionally, any signs of tightening credit conditions in the technology sector—such as widening corporate bond spreads or reduced bank loan growth—could signal the liquidity pressure Hayes describes. Finally, statements from major central banks regarding policy stance in response to potential AI‑related credit stress will be key indicators for Bitcoin’s near‑term environment.