Glassnode’s end‑October on‑chain data shows a sharp contraction in profitable short‑term holder activity across altcoins, while BlockchainCenter’s latest breadth reading indicates a neutral market stance. Together, the indicators suggest that the recent altcoin rally may be losing momentum and that a durable recovery remains unproven.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Profitability reset for short‑term holders

According to Glassnode, the short‑term‑holder spent output profit ratio (STH‑SOPR) fell dramatically by the end of October. The firm measured that only about 12% of its more than 300 tracked tokens were sold at a profit, a steep decline from roughly 80% in late September. A reading below 1 on the STH‑SOPR indicates that holders are realizing losses, meaning they are accepting prices below their acquisition cost. Glassnode cautioned that this metric alone cannot determine whether selling pressure is nearing exhaustion or if further weakness is likely.

Breadth remains in neutral territory

BlockchainCenter’s Altcoin Season Index, which compares the 90‑day performance of its eligible top‑50 altcoins against Bitcoin, posted a reading of 41 on Nov. 4. The index defines an “altcoin season” when 75% of the tracked coins outperform Bitcoin; a score of 41 places the market well within the neutral band of 26‑74. Consequently, fewer than half of the major altcoins examined have outperformed Bitcoin over the 90‑day window, underscoring limited relative strength.

Implications for a broader altcoin recovery

The two metrics assess different token universes and timeframes, so they cannot be directly combined. However, the convergence of a low profit‑share figure and a neutral breadth index highlights a lack of fresh buying pressure. Analysts note that a more convincing recovery would require both sustained profitability for short‑term holders and a larger share of altcoins beating Bitcoin. Until such alignment appears, the market’s bottom remains uncertain.

What to watch next

Investors should monitor upcoming Glassnode reports for any shift in the STH‑SOPR toward profitable spending, as well as future BlockchainCenter readings that could push the Altcoin Season Index above the 75 threshold. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price stability will be a key factor; a firm support level could provide the backdrop needed for altcoins to regain momentum.