Luxor’s October 2026 Hashrate Lookback reports a mixed market picture: the Bitcoin network’s hashrate rose sharply, but the hashprice and spot Bitcoin price both fell sharply. The 7‑day average network hashrate increased from 976 EH/s at the end of September to 1,067 EH/s by month‑end, a 9.4% gain that pushed the average above the 1 ZH/s threshold for the first time since early June. At the same time, the USD‑denominated hashprice dropped from $40.15 to $32.98 per PH/s/day, a 17.9% decline, while Bitcoin’s price fell from $84,049 to $77,332, an 8% slide.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Hashrate Growth Driven by Texas Power Dynamics

The hashrate expansion came largely from Texas, where the ERCOT 4‑capacity‑price (4CP) season ended on September 30. Real‑time electricity prices fell to $25‑$29/MWh in mid‑October, the cheapest levels since August, encouraging miners to increase capacity. The network’s 7‑day average crossed the 1,000 EH/s mark on October 11, and block times averaged 9 minutes 8 seconds, the fastest month since September 2025.

Difficulty Retargets and Their Impact on Hashprice

Two difficulty adjustments occurred on October 16 (+5.92%) and October 29 (+5.54%), marking the first back‑to‑back retargets above 5% since February 2024. The combined 11.76% rise in difficulty pushed the network’s total difficulty to 148.36T, the highest monthly gain in two years. Each retarget coincided with a drop in hashprice: the first cut the price from $38.83 to $36.60, and the second pushed it from $35.67 to $33.01, amplifying the overall 17.9% decline.

Spot ETF Flows and Forward Market Outlook

October marked the first net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs since June, with $515 million withdrawn after a $643 million single‑day exit on October 30. Year‑to‑date net inflows fell to $460 million from $970 million at the end of September. In the forward market, USD contracts for November 2026 to March 2027 fell 12‑16% between early October and early November, flattening the curve at $32‑34 per PH/s/day. The curve suggests the October difficulty surge will hold rather than accelerate.

What to Watch Next

Analysts will monitor whether the Texas power surplus continues to support hashrate growth as ERCOT moves into its next seasonal cycle. The upcoming FOMC decision on December 9 could influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory, which in turn affects hashprice dynamics. Finally, forward contract activity will be a key indicator of miner sentiment on difficulty trends heading into 2027.