Polymarket prediction markets price the probability of future events based on traders’ bets. Each market resolves on a specific outcome at a set date. Today the biggest moves were Bitcoin’s surge toward a $78,000 level on Nov 5 and a sharp swing in the Arizona House race.

Odds of Bitcoin above $78,000 on Nov 5 climb to 95%

The probability moved from 57% to 95%, a 38‑point rise, on $101K of 24‑hour volume. The market resolves on whether Bitcoin trades above $78,000 at any point on Nov 5.

Bitcoin above ___ on November 5?: live odds and chart

AZ‑02 House Election Winner (Jonathan Nez) falls to 33%

Traders pushed the odds from 68% down to 33%, a drop of 35 points, with $82K traded in the last day. The market settles on which candidate wins the Arizona House seat.

AZ-02 House Election Winner: live odds and chart

Odds of Bitcoin above $78,000 on Nov 6 rise to 85%

Probability increased from 55% to 85%, up 29 points, on $48K of volume. The market resolves on Bitcoin’s price crossing $78,000 at any time on Nov 6.

Bitcoin above ___ on November 6?: live odds and chart

WTI Crude Oil price below $85 in November 2026 climbs to 72%

The chance moved from 49% to 72%, a 23‑point gain, with $28K traded. The market resolves on the closing price of WTI for November 2026.

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?: live odds and chart

Odds of Ethereum above $2,400 on Nov 5 rise to 29%

Traders lifted the probability from 11% to 29%, an 18‑point increase, on $159K of volume. The market resolves on whether Ethereum trades above $2,400 on Nov 5.

Ethereum above ___ on November 5?: live odds and chart

Largest Company end of Dec 2026 (NVIDIA) drops to 39%