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Predictions

Live probabilities from Polymarket on crypto, the economy, politics and more. Each price is what traders pay for an outcome, so 63¢ means a 63% chance.

CryptoBitcoinEthereumEconomyPoliticsAIGeopoliticsSportsCultureAll

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

  • Benjamin Netanyahu38%
  • Gadi Eizenkot35%
  • Avigdor Lieberman7%
  • +16 more
$82.4M volume · Ends Oct 28, 2026

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • October 29>99%
  • October 30>99%
  • October 31>99%
  • +12 more
$42.0M volume · Ends Dec 31, 2026

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • October 31>99%
  • November 296%
  • November 488%
  • +5 more
$32.0M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

  • March 3164%
  • December 3141%
  • November 3030%
  • +2 more
$45.2M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. polymarket.com

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

Not available in the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and some other countries.

  • October 3198%
  • December 3198%
$163K volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

5%chance
$28.9M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump out as President before 2027?

3%chance
$13.5M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

2%chance
$16.8M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance
$16.1M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance
$4.4M volume · Ends Nov 1, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance
$76.1M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

  • December 3116%
  • November 307%
  • November 154%
  • +1 more
$13.0M volume · Ends Jan 3, 2027

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance
$45.5M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

  • December 3133%
  • November 3027%
  • November 26%
$3.0M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

  • December 31, 202753%
  • March 31, 202724%
  • December 3112%
$3.3M volume · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

  • June 30, 20278%
  • December 312%
$4.5M volume · Ends Jul 1, 2027

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

  • June 30, 202710%
  • March 31, 20276%
  • December 31, 20262%
$31.0M volume · Ends Jul 1, 2027

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

7%chance
$77.1M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Who will Trump meet with by November 30?

  • Xi Jinping95%
  • Vladimir Putin83%
  • Mark Carney69%
  • +13 more
$79K volume · Ends Dec 1, 2026

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

  • September 2733%
  • September 26<1%
$324K volume · Ends Sep 30, 2026

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

  • December 31, 202770%
  • November 30, 202768%
  • October 31, 202765%
  • +11 more
$10.2M volume · Ends Jul 1, 2027

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

  • No Hormuz Agreement95%
  • Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%
  • Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%
$1.8M volume · Ends Nov 4, 2026

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

  • December 3114%
  • November 309%
$20.9M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

  • December 31, 202642%
  • November 30, 202625%
$1.1M volume · Ends Dec 31, 2026

US imports Russian diesel by...?

  • March 3171%
  • January 3166%
  • December 3159%
  • +3 more
$816K volume · Ends Apr 1, 2027

Iran leadership change by...?

  • June 30, 202727%
  • December 3114%
  • November 308%
$28.5M volume · Ends Jul 1, 2027

Next leader out of power before 2027?

  • None before 202769%
  • Netanyahu - Israel PM13%
  • Sánchez - Spanish PM5%
  • +19 more
$2.2M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

  • Nicolás Maduro84%
  • Delcy Rodríguez12%
  • No Head of State1%
  • +13 more
$99.3M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Who will Trump speak to by November 30?

  • Xi Jinping94%
  • Vladimir Putin87%
  • Mohammed bin Salman81%
  • +19 more
$54K volume · Ends Dec 1, 2026

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

6%chance
$2.0M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

8%chance
$18.5M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance
$1.1M volume · Ends Dec 1, 2026

Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

  • Gadi Eizenkot70%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu31%
  • Naftali Bennett<1%
  • +16 more
$437K volume · Ends Oct 28, 2026

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

95%chance
$1.8M volume · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

  • 72%
  • 8+98%
$544K volume · Ends Oct 27, 2026

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

  • Kuomintang (KMT)76%
  • Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)23%
  • Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)<1%
$404K volume · Ends Nov 29, 2026

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

  • November 3088%
  • December 3151%
$2.6M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

  • December 3132%
  • November 3019%
$3.5M volume · Ends Nov 1, 2026

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

  • Saudi Arabia25%
  • China4%
  • Russia4%
  • +7 more
$185K volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

34%chance
$946K volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)

  • December 3137%
  • November 3024%
  • October 31<1%
$75K volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Russia military action against EU country by...?

  • December 31, 202722%
  • December 31, 20267%
$324K volume · Ends Jan 1, 2028

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

  • Vladimir Putin85%
  • Mohammed bin Salman83%
  • Aleksandr Lukashenko17%
  • +11 more
$1.4M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Iran full airspace closure by...?

  • December 3137%
  • November 3027%
$10.8M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

  • December 3112%
  • November 306%
  • October 31<1%
$17.8M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

  • China81%
  • No meeting by December 3116%
  • United States<1%
  • +12 more
$2.1M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance
$3.6M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2028

Netanyahu out by...?

  • June 30, 202741%
  • March 31, 202723%
  • December 3119%
$124.9M volume · Ends Jan 1, 2027