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Predictions/US imports Russian diesel by...?

US imports Russian diesel by...?

March 31: 71% chance-2.5 pp · 24h

March 31 · Probability, last 30 days49% → 71%
100%50%0%
Volume
$813K
24h volume
$38K
Liquidity
$56K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Apr 1, 2027

Outcomes

  • March 3171%
  • January 3166%
  • December 3159%
  • November 3050%
  • November 1543%
  • November 24%

Resolution rules

On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.

Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify.

To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
50¢
Shares
20.00
Payout if November 30: Yes wins
$20.00
Open on Polymarket

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

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