A new study by Bitcoin.com News, covering almost nine years of minute‑by‑minute price data from January 2018 to October 2026, examined how scheduled macro events affect Bitcoin’s volatility. The analysis compared Bitcoin’s movements around Federal Reserve (Fed) speeches, press conferences, economic releases and other calendar dates with typical trading days. The findings suggest that while certain events trigger short‑term spikes—often two to three times normal volatility—the market generally settles within a few hours, leaving daily and 24‑hour price changes largely unchanged.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

According to Bitcoin.com, Fed‑related announcements produce the most pronounced volatility. Speeches by the Fed chair at the Jackson Hole conference caused Bitcoin to move about 0.7% in the first 30 minutes—roughly three times the baseline 0.2% shift seen on ordinary days. Fed press conferences followed closely, with a 0.5% move (2.6× normal), while standard Fed rate‑decision statements and minutes generated 0.4%‑0.45% moves (about twice normal). Coin Metrics’ parallel analysis of data from January 2025 to September 2026 corroborated these patterns, noting that jobs reports and core CPI also pushed Bitcoin roughly twice as much as a typical half‑hour window.

Other calendar dates have limited impact

The study found that options expiry Fridays, often feared as volatility catalysts, behaved like any other Friday. Since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, expiry Fridays have been about a quarter less volatile than non‑expiry Fridays, with price changes of only 0.22% in the first half‑hour—aligned with baseline movements. Similarly, European Central Bank decisions and Bank of Japan announcements produced no statistically significant effect on Bitcoin’s short‑term price. U.S. tax deadlines, despite anecdotal concerns, did not increase volatility; however, Bitcoin tended to weaken in the month preceding the annual tax deadline after years of strong gains.

What to watch next

The upcoming Fed calendar remains a key short‑term driver: eight regular policy meetings per year, each releasing a statement at 2 p.m. EDT, with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT, and minutes published three weeks later. In October 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that one 2027 meeting will omit a rate or policy statement, potentially altering the usual volatility pattern. The Jackson Hole conference, typically held in late August, also warrants attention for its outsized impact. Traders focused on minute‑level charts should mark these dates, but the broader market can expect volatility to subside within a few hours, leaving daily price trajectories largely unaffected.