2% chance-0.3 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sanxingdui: Future Past, China's first fully AI-generated feature, launched with a wide rollout but generated only $9,700 in presales, highlighting the gap between technical capability and audience demand.
China's STAR50 tech index lost about $480 billion, a 40% drop since July, while Bitcoin rose roughly 27% over the same period, highlighting divergent market dynamics.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
