Ожидание поддержки
Glassnode Insights рассматривает откат Bitcoin после августа, сосредотачиваясь на прибыльности краткосрочных держателей, объёме и рыночном напряжении. Выясняется, что уровни прибыли упали, тогда как основная ончейн‑активность остаётся устойчивой.
Главное
- Краткосрочные держатели упали с ~97 % прибыли до ~38 %, снижая рыночное напряжение.
- Объём спотовой торговли остаётся ~1,5× уровня до пампа, несмотря на откат.
- Хак Binance на $6,3 млрд вызвал лишь ~3 % падение, показывая устойчивость рынка.
- Открытый интерес по опционам остаётся бычьим: $5,7 млрд‑$12,5 млрд экспираций около $80 тыс.
- Потоки US spot‑ETF стали отрицательными, отток ≈$1 млрд за две недели.
- True Market Mean
- $77,7 тыс
- Short‑Term Cost Basis
- $75,7 тыс
- Spot volume multiple
- ≈1,5×
- ETF net outflows
- ≈$1 млрд
- Binance hack size
- $6,3 млрд
- Calls OI
- $18 млрд
Market context
Glassnode Insights asks whether Bitcoin’s recent 10% pullback from its September peak signals a weakening of the August‑driven rally or a healthy correction. The report leans on on‑chain metrics—short‑term holder cost basis, profit‑loss ratios, liquidation heatmaps, and spot‑ETF flows—to gauge market stress and participant sentiment.
Data and methodology
The analysis uses Glassnode’s proprietary address‑label database to calculate the Short‑Term Holder Cost Basis (average price paid by investors bought within the last 155 days) and the True Market Mean (average cost basis of all active holders). It also tracks the share of short‑term supply in profit (STH‑SOPR), spot‑exchange volume, and futures/options open interest. All figures are as of November 4, 2026.
Core findings
Short‑term holders have slid from nearly universal profitability (≈97% SOPR) in early October to about 38% in profit today, indicating that the market is far less stretched than at the September high. Spot‑exchange volume remains roughly 1.5× its pre‑pump level, suggesting that capital already inside crypto continues to trade actively. Meanwhile, US spot‑ETF funds recorded net outflows of about $1 B over the past two weeks, underscoring a lack of fresh external money. The options market shows a bullish tilt, with $5.7 B and $12.5 B in open interest for the November 27 and December 25 expiries, respectively, and calls outpacing puts (≈$18 B vs $13 B). The $6.3 B Binance hack triggered only a ~3% price dip, a muted reaction that Glassnode interprets as a sign of underlying strength.
Caveats and outlook
Glassnode notes that open‑interest numbers do not reveal who is buying or selling the contracts, so the call‑heavy positioning could partly reflect premium‑selling by existing holders. Additionally, the absence of new inflows from traditional investors limits upside potential until external demand returns. The report cautions that a sustained break below the $73 K‑$76 K band—where the Short‑Term Holder Cost Basis, 200‑day average, and long‑liquidation cluster converge—would signal a deeper consolidation.
What it means for readers
For market participants, the shift from profit‑taking to loss‑taking among short‑term holders reduces immediate upside risk but also lowers the chance of a rapid sell‑off. Persistent volume and resilient price action after a major hack suggest that on‑chain activity remains robust. Traders should watch the $73 K‑$76 K support zone and monitor ETF flow trends for clues about incoming external capital.