In a recent interview on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets podcast, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said Wall Street traders and profit‑taking whales have largely ended Bitcoin’s streak of consecutive double‑digit rallies. He attributes the shift to institutional activity around spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and the growing use of call‑option selling strategies that blunt price spikes.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Institutional hedging dampens price explosions

Thielen explained that market makers and other institutional players now account for roughly 50 % of the estimated $60 billion net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, based on his analysis of Form 13F filings. These firms typically hold ETF shares to hedge their options positions rather than to take outright directional bets on Bitcoin, which reduces the net buying pressure that previously fueled rapid price gains.

ETF inflows and the role of retail and sovereign investors

The first wave of capital into Bitcoin ETFs, Thielen noted, included both retail investors accessing the market through institutional channels and corporate vehicles. Some participants paid premiums above the underlying crypto’s value, reflecting strong demand for regulated exposure. He also highlighted the potential for sovereign wealth funds to join the inflow stream, though their impact remains uncertain.

Outlook: price targets and macro influences

Despite the reduced volatility, Thielen remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory, forecasting a possible rise to $90,000 by the end of 2026. He anticipates a short‑term pullback into the mid‑ to high‑$70,000 range before a renewed rally driven by news events and Federal Reserve policy. The Fed’s recent quarter‑point hike to a 3.75 %–4 % target range, and the likelihood of another increase by December, could create a macro environment that supports Bitcoin’s upside, according to Thielen.

What to watch next

Investors should monitor upcoming Fed rate decisions, the pace of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and the volume of institutional option‑selling activity, as each factor will influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics in the coming months.