Bitcoin (BTC) remained above its 100‑day simple moving average on Monday, positioning the cryptocurrency for a pivotal week that includes the US midterm elections, key US labor data, and earnings reports from Apple and Palantir. The technical resilience comes as traders monitor a historically bearish quarter for Bitcoin during US midterm years, while market participants also gauge the impact of upcoming macroeconomic signals on risk‑asset liquidity.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Election Odds and Historical Context

Kalshi, a prediction‑market platform, listed the probability of Democrats winning control of the House at 93.6% on Monday, reflecting a strong market consensus ahead of the Tuesday vote. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin fell in each of the past three US midterm election years—down 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022—coinciding with broader bear markets. Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, said the midterm cycle often creates a short‑term price dip that can serve as a buying opportunity for investors who missed earlier rallies.

Macro Data and Fed Outlook

The week also features the release of US non‑farm payrolls, forecast to rise by 65,000 for October, and a consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. A modest payroll increase could keep expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike high; CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 67‑75% probability of a 0.25‑point hike at the next FOMC meeting. A dovish stance would generally support crypto liquidity, while a tighter policy could weigh on risk assets.

Technical Chart Comparisons

Trader Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin’s current weekly chart to the 2023 recovery phase, noting an inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern that previously led to a rally after a brief dip. The recent low near $76,300 aligned with the 100‑day SMA at $76,548, and Bitcoin also reclaimed its 100‑week EMA at $77,759. Capital is watching for any breach below the right‑shoulder support level, which could signal a short‑term downside before a potential rebound.

What to Watch Next

The market’s focus will shift to the midterm election results on Tuesday, followed by the October payroll report on Friday and the consumer sentiment data later that week. Additionally, earnings from Apple and Palantir, due after market close on Monday, could influence risk appetite across the broader tech sector. Analysts will be monitoring whether Bitcoin can maintain its moving‑average support amid these events, or if a breach could trigger a deeper correction reminiscent of previous midterm cycles.