Prediction markets on Polymarket let traders bet on the outcome of real‑world events, with odds reflecting the collective probability as priced by participants. Each market closes on a set date when the event is resolved.

Today the biggest moves were a surge in odds that Pete Hegseth will be impeached by the end of 2026, a rise in odds he will be out as Secretary of Defense, and a drop in odds of a senior US‑Iran diplomatic meeting.

Odds of Pete Hegseth impeachment by Dec 31 rise to 67%

48% → 67% (+19 pp) · $42K traded in 24h

Change: +19 pp, 24h volume $42K The market resolves on whether Pete Hegseth is impeached by December 31, 2026. It ends on January 1, 2027.

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Odds of Pete Hegseth out as SecDef by Nov 30 climb to 31%

20% → 31% (+12 pp) · $141K traded in 24h

Change: +12 pp, 24h volume $141K The market resolves on whether Pete Hegseth is removed as Secretary of Defense by November 30, 2026. It ends on December 1, 2026.

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Odds of US‑Iran senior diplomatic meeting by Nov 30 drop to 18%

31% → 18% (-13 pp) · $27K traded in 24h

Change: -13 pp, 24h volume $27K The market resolves on whether a senior US‑Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by November 30, 2026. It ends on December 31, 2026.

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Remember, odds are traders' bets, not forecasts or investment advice.

Data: Polymarket. Prediction market prices reflect traders' bets, not COINMAG forecasts. This is not financial advice.