Prediction markets on Polymarket let traders bet on the outcome of real‑world events, with odds reflecting the collective probability as priced by participants. Each market closes on a set date when the event is resolved.
Today the biggest moves were a surge in odds that Pete Hegseth will be impeached by the end of 2026, a rise in odds he will be out as Secretary of Defense, and a drop in odds of a senior US‑Iran diplomatic meeting.
Odds of Pete Hegseth impeachment by Dec 31 rise to 67%
48% → 67% (+19 pp) · $42K traded in 24h
Change: +19 pp, 24h volume $42K
The market resolves on whether Pete Hegseth is impeached by December 31, 2026. It ends on January 1, 2027.
Odds of Pete Hegseth out as SecDef by Nov 30 climb to 31%
20% → 31% (+12 pp) · $141K traded in 24h
Change: +12 pp, 24h volume $141K
The market resolves on whether Pete Hegseth is removed as Secretary of Defense by November 30, 2026. It ends on December 1, 2026.
Odds of US‑Iran senior diplomatic meeting by Nov 30 drop to 18%
31% → 18% (-13 pp) · $27K traded in 24h
Change: -13 pp, 24h volume $27K
The market resolves on whether a senior US‑Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by November 30, 2026. It ends on December 31, 2026.
Kirill SagitovFormer CEO of coytx.com. At COINMAG he writes the daily data briefs: market sentiment, stablecoins, derivatives, DeFi and prediction markets, built on the numbers COINMAG tracks.All articles by the author
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