Analyst Benjamin Cowen told his followers on Nov. 9 that the equity correction he has been tracking since July is now pulling Bitcoin lower, echoing the fourth‑quarter patterns of 2014, 2018 and 2022. With Bitcoin trading around $75,400 after briefly slipping to $73,900, Cowen warned that a deeper decline could materialise within the next two months, potentially reaching a floor near $44,000 as outlined in his July memo.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Equity Market Weakness Mirrors Past Cycles

Cowen’s thesis links Bitcoin’s price moves to broader stock‑market dynamics. He noted that the Nasdaq has fallen nearly 15% this quarter, the Russell 2000 down 11‑12%, and the Dow about 7%, while the S&P 500 slipped roughly 4%. The Nasdaq’s recent 5.5% plunge on Nov. 5 extended a four‑week losing streak, reinforcing the pattern he associates with mid‑term election years, which historically have been Bitcoin’s weakest periods.

Technical Outlook and Prediction‑Market Signals

In a follow‑up video, Cowen highlighted a chart zone defined by Bitcoin’s 20‑week and 21‑week moving averages, suggesting the price is poised for further downside. Prediction‑market platform Polymarket currently assigns a 46.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $70,000 in November, with lower odds for $65,000 (18.5%) and $60,000 (7.5%). These odds stop at the end of the month, whereas Cowen’s timeline stretches into early 2027.

What to Watch Next

Key upcoming data points include U.S. inflation figures due Tuesday and Nvidia’s Q3 earnings on Nov. 17, both of which could influence equity sentiment and, by extension, Bitcoin’s trajectory. Cowen also flagged that the S&P 500 may be one of the last indexes to fall before any policy response, making its performance a potential swing factor for crypto markets.