Bitcoin odds plunge to 5% as traders repriced $900K volume
Bitcoin’s chance of topping $76,000 on Nov 9 fell sharply while Ethereum odds rose to 65% amid $1.4M volume.
Kirill Sagitovex-CEO, coytx.com · via COINMAG
Polymarket prediction markets price the probability of specific outcomes, expressed as odds that traders buy and sell. Today the biggest moves were a collapse in Bitcoin’s above‑$76,000 odds and a surge in Ethereum price odds.
The Bitcoin market lost 44 percentage points on $900K total volume, while the Ethereum price market gained 23 points on $1.4M total volume. Other notable shifts included Israel’s prime‑minister odds and a US‑Iran diplomatic meeting bet.
Odds of Bitcoin above $76,000 on Nov 9 fall to 5%
49% → 5% (-44 pp) · $100K traded in 24h
The market resolves on whether Bitcoin trades above $76,000 at any time on November 9, 2026. It closes on November 9, 2026.
Odds of Ethereum hitting target price in November rise to 65%
42% → 65% (+23 pp) · $27K traded in 24h
The market resolves on the price Ethereum reaches in November, with the target set below $2,000. It closes on December 1, 2026.
Odds of Bitcoin hitting $77,500 in November drop to 67%
83% → 67% (-16 pp) · $34K traded in 24h
The market resolves on whether Bitcoin reaches $77,500 at any point in November. It closes on December 1, 2026.
Odds of Gadi Eizenkot becoming Israel PM fall to 59%
71% → 59% (-12 pp) · $156K traded in 24h
The market resolves on which candidate becomes Israel’s prime minister after the next election. It closes on October 28, 2026.
Odds of Kai Cenat finishing GTA marathon by Nov 10 slip to 9%
19% → 9% (-10 pp) · $230K traded in 24h
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Kirill SagitovFormer CEO of coytx.com. At COINMAG he writes the daily data briefs: market sentiment, stablecoins, derivatives, DeFi and prediction markets, built on the numbers COINMAG tracks.All articles by the author
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