Dollar-denominated stablecoin usage appears to remain high even after governments lift capital controls, according to new research from the International Monetary Fund. Marco Reuter, an IMF economist, presented historical estimates in a column published on VoxEU on October 31. The findings suggest that once residents adopt digital dollar assets, they continue to use them even when official restrictions on capital outflows are relaxed. This persistence challenges the assumption that removing financial barriers will naturally return currency flows to domestic channels.

Elevated activity follows control activation

Reuter analyzed 217 instances where countries implemented capital-flow measures, comparing them with periods where no such measures were introduced. The study used the month prior to activation as a baseline for measurement. Following the tightening of restrictions on capital outflows, estimated cross-border stablecoin activity increased by approximately 30% within six months. This elevated level of activity persisted through the twelfth month after the policy change. The data covers a panel of 188 countries during the period from 2018 to 2025, focusing specifically on USDT and USDC inflows.

Lifting controls does not reverse usage

In a separate analysis of cases where capital controls were subsequently removed, Reuter found no detectable retreat in stablecoin activity. The data rejected the hypothesis that removing restrictions fully reverses the initial increase in usage. This asymmetry between tightening and easing has significant policy implications. If stablecoin activity simply tracked the presence of restrictions, easing those rules should have caused activity to fall. Instead, the reported pattern indicates that lifting controls alone is insufficient to return stablecoin use to pre-restriction levels. The column does not specify the exact duration for which activity remains elevated after removal.

Methodological differences with prior BIS work

These findings align with earlier research from the Bank for International Settlements, which also observed persistence in dollar deposits and stablecoin activity. However, the BIS study, published in July 2026, reported that estimated stablecoin-flow responses to restrictions were not statistically significant. The two studies differ in their methodologies and datasets. The BIS working paper utilized Chainalysis data for gross USDT and USDC inflows across 184 countries from 2017 to 2024, while Reuter's panel extends to 2025 and uses a different probabilistic model for wallet location attribution. Reuter approximates holdings through cumulative net flows, whereas the BIS study focuses on a broader historical record of deposit dollarization from 1990 to 2019.