Polymarket and Kalshi Predict Democratic Sweep in 2026 Midterms
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a 74‑78% chance of controlling both chambers in the 2026 midterms, echoing traditional pollsters.
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Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 4, 2026
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a 74‑78% chance of controlling both chambers in the 2026 midterms, echoing traditional pollsters.
Bitcoin could bottom between mid‑November 2026 and mid‑January 2027 if the recent midterm cycle pattern repeats, analysts say.
Bitcoin stayed above its 100‑day SMA as US midterm elections, jobs reports and tech earnings loom, prompting analysts to weigh short‑term risks and buying opportunities.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
Anthony Pompliano argues that the crypto market's current aversion to uncertainty will resolve once the midterm elections are concluded.
