PolymarketとKalshi、2026年中間選挙での民主党の全勝を予測
予測市場のPolymarketとKalshiは、2026年中間選挙で民主党が上下両院を制する確率を74〜78%と評価しており、従来の世論調査と一致している。

データ:Polymarket(1分ごとに更新) · 2026年11月4日 まで
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
予測市場のPolymarketとKalshiは、2026年中間選挙で民主党が上下両院を制する確率を74〜78%と評価しており、従来の世論調査と一致している。
ビットコインは、最近の中間選挙サイクルパターンが繰り返されれば、2026年11月中旬から2027年1月中旬の間に底を打つ可能性があるとアナリストは語る。
米国中間選挙、雇用統計、テック企業の決算発表を控える中、ビットコインは100日移動平均線(SMA)を上回っており、アナリストたちは短期的なリスクと買い場を慎重に見極めています。
「はい」の最新価格です。事象が起きると $1 が支払われる契約に対しトレーダーが支払う金額なので、市場が見積もる確率として読めます。
市場は下記のルールで判定されます。Polymarket は UMA のオプティミスティック・オラクルを使い、誰でも結果を提案し、異議申立期間中に争うことができます。
Polymarket が利用できる地域なら可能です。ご自身のウォレットを接続し、賭けは Polymarket に送られ、資金が COINMAG を通ることはありません。