Bitcoin’s price has fallen to its weakest October finish since 2014, trading near $78,500 as the U.S. midterm election approaches on Tuesday, Nov. 3. A recent analysis by Bitcoin.com researchers shows a recurring pattern: Bitcoin’s lowest point in the three cycles following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms fell 71, 39 and 13 days after the vote, respectively. Counting from today’s vote, the next low could arrive between mid‑November 2026 and mid‑January 2027. The 2022 gap is the most familiar, as the FTX collapse and a sharp drop toward $16,000 occurred just days after the November 8 election. Analysts note that Bitcoin fell after four straight midterms, with declines of 72% after 2010, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022. The current week is already crowded with risk‑off sentiment, compounded by a $6.3 billion Binance hack and the pending release of Binance’s delayed proof of reserves.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Market‑Making Platforms Back Democratic Sweep

Prediction markets are heavily betting on a Democratic sweep of Congress. Polymarket reports 72% odds for a Democratic win, with over $51 million in trading volume on the contract. Kalshi’s balance‑of‑power market also shows a 70% probability for a Democratic victory, the highest level seen over the weekend. Crypto‑industry figures have weighed in: Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl argues that U.S. political outcomes matter little to global crypto activity, which he estimates is only 15‑20% U.S.‑centric. Nonetheless, traders routinely reduce risk ahead of major political events, and the current week is no exception.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

Historical data from Cryptoquant indicates that Bitcoin has lost more than 60% in each of the last three midterm years, only to average gains of over 50% in the following 12 months. Some market participants, such as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, have revised their bearish stance after Bitcoin held $77,000 in the days following the Binance hack. Others, including Macro analyst Henrik Zeberg, caution that the current rally may be a “Fool’s Rally” that could push Bitcoin to $115,000 before a bear market resumes. The pattern also aligns with Bitcoin’s four‑year halving cycle, adding another layer of potential correlation. If Bitcoin holds through mid‑January 2027, the midterm‑bottom theory would be challenged; if it slides, the view will gain traction.

What to Watch Next

Investors should monitor Bitcoin’s price action in the weeks following the election for signs of a post‑midterm bottom. Key indicators include the speed of any decline, the depth relative to the 60% historical loss, and the subsequent recovery trajectory. Regulatory developments, especially any changes to pending market‑structure legislation, could also influence sentiment. Finally, the outcome of the Democratic sweep bet on Polymarket and Kalshi may offer insight into market expectations for U.S. policy shifts that could affect crypto adoption and regulation.