December 31: 95% chance+0.2 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Dec 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.
Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count.
The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
