Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
A Federal Reserve staff analysis shows post‑2020 oil price changes now lift core inflation, raising the odds that tighter policy may dampen Bitcoin investors’ risk appetite.
Bitcoin’s price, hashprice and network hashrate all fell this week, while transaction fees rose 31%, according to the Hashrate Index weekly roundup.
PNC Bank and Coinbase have begun a limited pilot that lets eligible corporate customers accept USDC payments, automatically converting them to dollars on deposit.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
Animoca Brands named co‑founder Yat Siu its chief executive, shifting focus to AI‑driven agents and institutional finance while preparing for a future public listing.
Michael Saylor traced Strategy’s Bitcoin‑backed preferred stock to financing innovations dating back to the Dutch East India Company, highlighting a $2.5 bn raise and daily dividend accrual.
Bitcoin fell 5.5% to $75,969 on Nov. 5 while U.S. bank reserves rose $67.5 billion and major stablecoins lost nearly $4 billion in circulation.
