Bitcoin (BTC) slipped beneath $77,700 on Monday, crossing the realized price level that on‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant identifies as the average cost basis for traders who entered the market between one and three months ago. The move places the $77,700 threshold in a potential resistance role, while the next lower support band sits at $68,400, a price that would still leave that cohort with a 12% net loss.

BTC / USD
Source: CoinGecko. Prices are indicative.

Cost‑basis dynamics turn support into resistance

CryptoQuant’s Trader On‑chain Realized Price Bands metric tracks the price at which recent speculative traders bought Bitcoin. Historically, when price stays above this level it serves as a floor, but a breach can flip it into a ceiling as underwater holders look to exit at breakeven. The platform noted that Bitcoin’s price has been narrowing the gap with the $77,700 cost basis, which has risen steadily even as BTC corrected, according to a CryptoQuant contributor.

Short‑term holders face mounting losses

The same on‑chain data shows short‑term holders (STHs) – investors who have kept BTC for up to 155 days – carry an average cost basis of $75,832. Their Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits at 1.012, just above the breakeven point. A drop below the realized price would push the MVRV toward 0.85, a level previously linked to “tactical capitulation” and short‑term price traps. The last time BTC fell through the 0.85 MVRV threshold was in early June, after which it recovered in mid‑August.

What to watch next

Analysts will monitor whether Bitcoin can hold above the $68,400 support band, which would limit losses for recent buyers. A sustained break below $68,400 could deepen the aggregate loss and test the 0.85 MVRV level, potentially prompting further selling from short‑term holders. Conversely, a rebound above $77,700 may re‑establish the cost‑basis level as support, easing pressure on underwater traders.