Brent crude slides 12.5% as US‑Iran tension risk remains high
Brent fell to about $98 a barrel, but former Biden adviser Amos Hochstein warns that the odds of renewed US‑Iran conflict are still above 50%.
CCOINMAG
1.0K0
9% chance+2 pp in 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Brent fell to about $98 a barrel, but former Biden adviser Amos Hochstein warns that the odds of renewed US‑Iran conflict are still above 50%.
The U.S. Treasury added eight Canadian firms to its sanctions list, accusing them of facilitating crypto trades for Iran‑linked entities and the IRGC.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
