Brent crude settled near $98 a barrel on Friday, marking a weekly decline of over 12.5% after the United States’ November midterm elections eased short‑term war‑risk premiums, according to BeInCrypto.

Midterm results ease immediate oil‑price pressure

Traders interpreted the Democratic sweep in the midterms as a brake on the prospect of an immediate US‑Iran clash, sending oil prices down 8% on Wednesday. The rally‑to‑risk that had pushed Brent above $120 earlier this year receded, but the market remains split between expectations of a diplomatic deal and the possibility of renewed strikes.

Former Biden adviser warns conflict risk stays high

Amos Hochstein, who served as an energy adviser in the Biden administration and now leads TWG Global, told CNBC that the odds of a renewed US‑Iran war are “above 50/50.” He said the decision to resume hostilities pre‑dated the election and was merely delayed, adding, “I think that there is a very good chance that we go back to conflict.”

Ongoing maritime threats keep oil volatile

Iran confirmed attacks on three additional tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, and data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency shows ship‑based incidents are near record levels. These disruptions, combined with Tehran’s nuclear proposal delivered via Qatar, mean that any credible path to safer Gulf transit remains uncertain, a point highlighted by Goldman Sachs analysts who warned that oil could stay “supported on dips and prone to sharp moves on any escalation headlines.”

What to watch next

Investors should monitor three key variables: (1) any official US statement or military action regarding Iran, (2) the frequency of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and (3) progress on the nuclear negotiations being brokered through Qatar. Each factor could trigger a rapid swing in Brent pricing and, by extension, influence broader commodity‑linked crypto assets.