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Predictions/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026

46.0 to 48.9: 54% chance+14.5 pp · 24h

46.0 to 48.9 · Probability, last 30 days33% → 54%
100%50%0%
Volume
$26K
24h volume
$4K
Liquidity
$11K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 20, 2026

Outcomes

  • 46.0 to 48.954%
  • 49.0 to 51.929%
  • 43.0 to 45.914%
  • <40.03%
  • 55.0+3%
  • 52.0 to 54.92%
  • 40.0 to 42.92%

Resolution rules

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for November 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.

The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for November 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on November 20, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.

Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Resolution source: data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
53.5¢
Shares
18.69
Payout if 46.0 to 48.9: Yes wins
$18.69
Open on Polymarket

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