Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 6, 2026
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Around $2.7 billion of Bitcoin options will settle at 08:00 UTC on Nov 6, just before the US employment data, leaving traders with a five‑hour protection gap.
Luxor’s October lookback shows a 9.4% rise in network hashrate and an 11.8% difficulty jump, while the USD hashprice fell 17.9% amid an 8% drop in Bitcoin price.
VanEck argues the October plunge in mining firms expanding into AI data centers reflects excessive fear, not fundamentals, and sees a buying opportunity.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
Kalshi traded $4.15 billion in notional volume on Nov. 3, its highest weekday volume yet but still short of the $5.3 billion record set on Oct. 24.
October saw only 35 dormant Bitcoin transfers totaling 2,159 BTC, a sharp decline from August’s 188 moves, with 2013‑born wallets dominating the activity.
Ethereum’s effective validator stake grew by about 361,000 ETH in October, while total consensus‑layer holdings fell, reflecting deposit queues and withdrawal timing.
