Christopher Luxon · Probability, last 30 days56% → 85%
100%50%0%
Volume
$305K
24h volume
$78K
Liquidity
$158K
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 8, 2026
Outcomes
Christopher Luxon85%
Chris Hipkins13%
Winston Peters<1%
Nicola Willis<1%
Chlöe Swarbrick<1%
David Seymour<1%
Carmel Sepuloni<1%
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Stand With Crypto counted 222 pro‑crypto House winners and 19 pro‑crypto Senate winners, marking a significant shift toward crypto‑friendly lawmakers in the new Congress.
CCOINMAG
7720
How to read this market
What does the percentage mean?
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
Who decides the result?
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Can I bet from COINMAG?
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.