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COINMAG Digest · October 30Quantum computer may break Bitcoin in 62 minutesRead the issue 2d
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TrendingBitcoin volatility spikes briefly after Fed events but normalizes within hours, study showsBitcoinSolana Staking Rewards Hide Validator Commission Data After Custom Collector UpdateAltcoinsBinance hack sees $296 million XRP drained from five wallets in four minutesRegulationBitcoin Holds Near $77,000 Amid Rising Derivatives Exposure and ETF OutflowsBitcoinPeter Schiff Links Gold Sell‑Off to Potential Market Liquidity CrunchRegulationBanks Face $349 Billion Exposure to U.S. Private Credit FundsRegulationBinance Hack Spurs Kim Jong Un Memes and Raises Questions About North Korea’s Crypto GainsRegulationBitcoin White Paper Turns 18, Raising Long‑Term Security QuestionsRegulation
Predictions/Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX: 53% chance-0.5 pp · 24h

SpaceX · Probability, last 30 days50% → 53%
100%50%0%
Volume
$7.0M
24h volume
$233K
Liquidity
$724K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 2, 2027

Outcomes

  • SpaceX53%
  • Anthropic46%
  • OpenAI<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Stripe<1%
  • Databricks<1%
  • SHEIN<1%
  • Waymo<1%
  • Revolut<1%
  • Discord<1%
  • Perplexity AI<1%
  • Kraken<1%

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.

This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.

A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Related news

OPENAI
Institutions·1 day ago

OpenAI Cuts 2027 Fundraising Target by $10B

OpenAI has lowered its 2027 fundraising goal from $30B to $20B amid a tech‑stock sell‑off and weaker investor demand, trimming its valuation to $1.25T.

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BINANCE
Institutions·2 days ago

Binance CEO CZ asks Elon Musk to stop trolling after $6.4 billion hack, cites $1 billion SpaceX stake

Following the largest crypto theft on record, Binance co‑founder Changpeng Zhao publicly urged Elon Musk to cease mocking the exchange, highlighting Binance’s $1 billion‑plus SpaceX share holding.

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$ELON MUSK
Regulation·2 days ago

Elon Musk warns future AI agents could autonomously steal crypto after Binance breach

Musk cautioned that superintelligent AI could use crypto systems to fund themselves, citing the recent Binance hack where stolen USDT was used as collateral on Aave.

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
53¢
Shares
18.87
Payout if SpaceX: Yes wins
$18.87
Open on Polymarket

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

Not available in the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and some other countries.

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ANTHROPIC
Institutions·2 days ago

Anthropic IPO filing shows founders could own up to $203 billion if $2 trillion valuation materialises

Anthropic’s seven co‑founders collectively hold roughly 1.4% of the AI firm, a stake that could be worth more than $200 billion under a $2 trillion IPO valuation.

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

  • Democrats Sweep72%
  • R Senate, D House23%
  • Republicans Sweep5%
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