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Predictions/ISM Services PMI - October 2026

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.9: 26% chance-13 pp · 24h

53.0 to 53.9 · Probability, last 30 days21% → 26%
100%50%0%
Volume
$31K
24h volume
$4K
Liquidity
$11K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Outcomes

  • 53.0 to 53.926%
  • 55.0 to 55.923%
  • 56.0 to 56.920%
  • 54.0 to 54.910%
  • 57.0 to 57.95%
  • 52.0 to 52.94%
  • 59.0+4%
  • <51.03%
  • 58.0 to 58.93%
  • 51.0 to 51.92%

Resolution rules

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.

The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 4, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.

Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
25.5¢
Shares
39.22
Payout if 53.0 to 53.9: Yes wins
$39.22
Open on Polymarket

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

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