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Predictions/How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%: 96% chance-1.1 pp · 24h

Below 4.70% · Probability, last 30 days49% → 96%
100%50%0%
Volume
$413K
24h volume
$7K
Liquidity
$62K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Outcomes

  • Below 4.70%96%
  • Below 4.65%82%
  • Below 4.60%65%
  • Below 4.55%52%
  • Below 4.50%47%
  • Below 4.45%36%
  • Below 4.40%28%
  • Below 4.35%19%
  • Below 4.30%17%
  • Below 4.25%9%
  • Below 4.20%8%
  • Below 4.10%6%
  • Below 4.00%3%

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.

Place a bet

Price
51.5¢
Shares
19.42
Payout if Below 4.55%: Yes wins
$19.42
Open on Polymarket

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