Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 29, 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A Federal Reserve survey reveals net tightening of credit standards for nonbank borrowers, raising concerns that reduced financing could dampen Bitcoin investment appetite.
Custodia Bank has petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court ruling that permits regional Federal Reserve branches to refuse payment system access to eligible banks.
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
A $6.36 billion theft from Binance has highlighted the need for the CFTC’s proposed federal registration framework for U.S. leveraged crypto trading.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate range on October 28, with Chair Kevin Warsh citing resilient economic activity and persistent inflation concerns.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rates at 3.75% to 4% despite persistent inflation, leading to a slight dip in Bitcoin prices.
