580+: 3% chance+1.5 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 6, 2026
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 30 12:00 PM ET to November 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: x.com/elonmusk
Following the largest crypto theft on record, Binance co‑founder Changpeng Zhao publicly urged Elon Musk to cease mocking the exchange, highlighting Binance’s $1 billion‑plus SpaceX share holding.
Musk cautioned that superintelligent AI could use crypto systems to fund themselves, citing the recent Binance hack where stolen USDT was used as collateral on Aave.
Utah prosecutors filed 14 criminal counts against prediction‑market platform Kalshi and its co‑founders for allegedly taking illegal sports bets in the state.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
