In a recent interview, Adam Back, the CEO and co‑founder of Blockstream, argued that Bitcoin’s next major growth phase will be driven by pension funds, managed funds and model portfolios. While the first wave of adoption involved retail investors and the second wave saw the rise of exchange‑traded funds, Back believes the third wave—institutional long‑term capital—remains largely untapped. He highlighted that Swiss banks are already positioning themselves to meet the demand for secure, quantum‑resistant Bitcoin custody.

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Why the Third Wave Matters

Back described the first two adoption waves as foundational: individuals introduced Bitcoin to the market, and ETFs provided regulated exposure for a broader audience. The third wave, he said, will bring deep‑pocketed institutional capital, offering stability and scale that could cement Bitcoin’s role as a store of value. According to Back, pension funds and model portfolios are especially attractive because they allocate capital over long horizons, aligning with Bitcoin’s low‑correlation profile.

Swiss Banks Prepare for Quantum‑Safe Custody

Blockstream has opened an office in Lugano, Switzerland, to support local banks in building custody infrastructure that can withstand future quantum attacks. Back noted that Swiss banks are evaluating both in‑house solutions and third‑party custodians, weighing factors such as regulatory compliance, Basel capital requirements and the cost of holding Bitcoin. He emphasized that quantum‑safe technology will be a differentiator for banks seeking to attract institutional clients.

Regulatory Landscape and Custody Choices

The interview touched on how regulation shapes Bitcoin custody strategies. Back explained that Basel rules influence the capital treatment of Bitcoin holdings, affecting the economics for banks and fund managers. He also compared tokenized money‑market funds with stablecoins, suggesting that tokenized securities on platforms like Liquid and Blockstream AMP could offer a regulated pathway for institutions to gain exposure without direct on‑chain custody.

What to Watch Next

Industry observers should monitor the rollout of quantum‑resistant custody solutions by Swiss banks and the response of pension fund managers to emerging tokenized products. Additionally, regulatory updates—particularly around Basel capital treatment for digital assets—will be critical in determining how quickly the third wave materialises.