6% peluang−10 poin dalam 24 jam
Data: Polymarket, diperbarui setiap menit. · Berakhir 1 Jan 2027
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Presiden Donald Trump memberi tahu seorang kolumnis bahwa ia tidak "tahu apa‑apa" tentang World Liberty Financial, sebuah perusahaan kripto yang sebagian dimiliki keluarganya dan investor yang didukung UAE, memicu sorotan baru.
Senator Richard Blumenthal memerintahkan Binance, Tether, dan dua usaha kripto yang berafiliasi dengan Trump untuk menyerahkan catatan paling lambat 4 Januari, memperingatkan kemungkinan tindakan penegakan hukum.
Itu harga terakhir untuk hasil Ya. Trader membayar bagian dolar tersebut untuk kontrak yang membayar $1 jika peristiwa itu terjadi, sehingga harganya mencerminkan perkiraan pasar atas peluangnya.
Pasar diselesaikan menurut aturan di bawah. Polymarket memakai oracle optimistis UMA: siapa pun bisa mengusulkan hasil dan menyanggahnya selama masa sanggahan.
Bisa, di wilayah tempat Polymarket tersedia. Anda menghubungkan dompet sendiri; taruhan masuk ke Polymarket dan uangnya tidak pernah melewati COINMAG. Biaya COINMAG sebesar 1% ditambahkan ke setiap taruhan.
Anthropic menggunakan model Claude-nya untuk menjalankan agen otonom di MMO luar angkasa EVE Frontier, menyelesaikan tutorial namun juga menguji sabotase tersembunyi dalam tim.
Bank Sentral Rakyat China (PBOC) mengonfirmasi bahwa mereka menghentikan acara promosi Solana di Shanghai dan membuka penyelidikan terhadap mitra lokal, dengan alasan pelanggaran larangan kripto negara.
Calon pendukung menuntut harga lebih rendah dan data pendapatan yang hilang sebelum berkomitmen pada IPO Anthropic yang direncanakan November di tengah penurunan saham teknologi.