6% prob.−10 p.p. en 24 h
Datos: Polymarket, actualizados cada minuto. · Hasta 1 ene 2027
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Anthropic presentó sus nuevos modelos Claude Fable 5.2 y Mythos 5.2 restringido, ofreciendo una salida más rápida y menores costos por token, aunque las pruebas en el mundo real muestran facturas de API elevadas para proyectos grandes.
El presidente Donald Trump le dijo a un columnista que no sabe “nada” sobre World Liberty Financial, una empresa de criptomonedas propiedad parcial de su familia y un inversor respaldado por EAU, lo que ha desatado nuevas críticas.
Es el último precio del resultado Sí. Los traders pagan esa parte de un dólar por un contrato que paga $1 si el evento ocurre, así que el precio se lee como la probabilidad estimada por el mercado.
El mercado se resuelve según las reglas de abajo. Polymarket usa el oráculo optimista de UMA: cualquiera puede proponer el resultado y disputarlo durante un periodo de impugnación.
Sí, donde Polymarket esté disponible. Conectas tu propia billetera; la apuesta va a Polymarket y el dinero nunca pasa por COINMAG. Se añade una comisión de COINMAG del 1% a cada apuesta.
El senador Richard Blumenthal ha ordenado a Binance, Tether y dos empresas cripto afiliadas a Trump que presenten registros antes del 4 de enero, advirtiendo de posibles acciones de aplicación.
Anthropic utilizó sus modelos Claude para operar agentes autónomos en el MMO espacial EVE Frontier, completando el tutorial y probando también el sabotaje encubierto dentro de los equipos.
El Banco Popular de China confirmó que detuvo el evento promocional de Solana en Shanghái y abrió una investigación sobre socios locales, alegando violaciones a la prohibición cripto del país.
Los posibles inversores piden un precio más bajo y datos de ingresos faltantes antes de comprometerse con la OPI de Anthropic, prevista para noviembre, en medio de una venta masiva de acciones tecnológicas.