Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2028
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Cory Klippsten argues that large language models present a more immediate security risk to crypto exchanges than quantum computers, citing recent high-profile hacks.
Alice & Bob’s new research suggests a fault‑tolerant quantum computer with about 29,600 physical qubits could solve Bitcoin’s elliptic‑curve signature in roughly 62 minutes, tightening timelines for post‑quantum upgrades.
KuCoin announced an immediate suspension of all products for customers in Russia and Belarus, citing compliance with legal and regulatory requirements.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned ten individuals and one entity tied to North Korean IT worker schemes, naming two Russian nationals who moved over $5 million in crypto for the regime.
Bipartisan senators have issued a formal inquiry to prediction market leaders, demanding details on how they prevent insider trading and manipulation ahead of the upcoming midterms.
