3% chance-0.5 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.
The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents MicroStrategy.
A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
"MicroStrategy" refers to Strategy Inc (formerly MicroStrategy Incorporated; Nasdaq: MSTR), the parent company of the Strategy group, or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, Strategy Inc and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of MicroStrategy's business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test.
A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify.
A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own.
Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision.
The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors.
If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity.
A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
Bitcoin steadied around $77,000 as open interest rose and US spot ETFs recorded $643 million of outflows, raising questions about the sustainability of its recovery.
Bitcoin’s founding document turns 18, prompting a review of the network’s incentive model as block subsidies dwindle and transaction fees remain a small share of miner revenue.
Next Technology’s board approved a plan to sell or pledge its 5,833‑bitcoin treasury, citing the recent Binance breach and emerging quantum‑computing threats.
Log Scale Investments CEO Mike Flaum argues Strategy's stock is undervalued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and predicts substantial gains during the upcoming bull market.
Anthony Pompliano posted that despite a $6 billion exchange hack, Bitcoin fell less than 5%, which he sees as bullish.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
