42% chance+2.5 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
Bitcoin steadied around $77,000 as open interest rose and US spot ETFs recorded $643 million of outflows, raising questions about the sustainability of its recovery.
Schiff warns that Friday’s steep drop in gold could signal a short‑term liquidity issue that may spread to broader markets by next week.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
Bitcoin’s founding document turns 18, prompting a review of the network’s incentive model as block subsidies dwindle and transaction fees remain a small share of miner revenue.
Log Scale Investments CEO Mike Flaum argues Strategy's stock is undervalued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and predicts substantial gains during the upcoming bull market.
Anthony Pompliano posted that despite a $6 billion exchange hack, Bitcoin fell less than 5%, which he sees as bullish.