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Predictions/Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka · Probability, last 30 days35% → 19%
100%50%0%
Volume
$1.9M
24h volume
$60K
Liquidity
$78K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Outcomes

  • Druzkhivka19%
  • Sloviansk6%
  • Kramatorsk6%
  • Kherson4%
  • Sumy3%
  • Zaporizhia3%
  • Kharkiv1%

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances

Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.

Place a bet

Price
18.5¢
Shares
54.05
COINMAG fee (1%)
$0.10
Payout if Druzkhivka: Yes wins
$54.05
Open on Polymarket

Prediction markets carry a high risk of loss. Bets go to Polymarket from your own wallet; COINMAG never holds your funds and is not a party to the trade.

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