Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Former White House crypto adviser says President Trump wants to buy bitcoin for a strategic reserve, but a rider in the 2025 NDAA makes open‑market purchases legally questionable.
Naomi JohnsonTrump Media & Technology Group has committed roughly 11,385 BTC to a yield‑generating options program, while another 4,261 BTC secures its $1 bn convertible notes.
Naomi JohnsonMicrosoft warns a U.S. ban on Chinese-made optical transceivers could stall AI data‑center construction and waste billions in chip investments.
Rahul VermaIt is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
A Federal Reserve staff analysis shows post‑2020 oil price changes now lift core inflation, raising the odds that tighter policy may dampen Bitcoin investors’ risk appetite.
Naomi JohnsonTrump Media & Technology Group turned a $238 million Q2 loss into a $410 million profit in Q3, thanks to gains on its Bitcoin and equity assets.
Rahul VermaPresident Donald Trump told a columnist he knows “nothing” about World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm partly owned by his family and a UAE‑backed investor, sparking fresh scrutiny.
