6% chance+1 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
Bitcoin steadied around $77,000 as open interest rose and US spot ETFs recorded $643 million of outflows, raising questions about the sustainability of its recovery.
Bitcoin’s founding document turns 18, prompting a review of the network’s incentive model as block subsidies dwindle and transaction fees remain a small share of miner revenue.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
Log Scale Investments CEO Mike Flaum argues Strategy's stock is undervalued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and predicts substantial gains during the upcoming bull market.
Anthony Pompliano posted that despite a $6 billion exchange hack, Bitcoin fell less than 5%, which he sees as bullish.
Muneeb Ali argues that uncertainty over quantum computing is deterring institutional investors, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs grow.