December 31: 72% chance-1 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for STRC between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, has a final “High” value of at least $100. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the STRC “High” values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ASTRC, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
If, on the listed date at 11:59 PM ET, price data is unavailable from TradingView for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and MarketWatch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
Bitcoin steadied around $77,000 as open interest rose and US spot ETFs recorded $643 million of outflows, raising questions about the sustainability of its recovery.
Bitcoin’s founding document turns 18, prompting a review of the network’s incentive model as block subsidies dwindle and transaction fees remain a small share of miner revenue.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
Log Scale Investments CEO Mike Flaum argues Strategy's stock is undervalued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and predicts substantial gains during the upcoming bull market.
Anthony Pompliano posted that despite a $6 billion exchange hack, Bitcoin fell less than 5%, which he sees as bullish.
Muneeb Ali argues that uncertainty over quantum computing is deterring institutional investors, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs grow.