3% chance
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
A Federal Reserve survey reveals net tightening of credit standards for nonbank borrowers, raising concerns that reduced financing could dampen Bitcoin investment appetite.
October saw only 35 dormant Bitcoin transfers totaling 2,159 BTC, a sharp decline from August’s 188 moves, with 2013‑born wallets dominating the activity.
Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin cautioned that advanced AI might discover shortcuts to break the elliptic curve math protecting ETH and BTC, adding a new threat to the crypto security landscape.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research argues that institutional option sellers and market makers are dampening Bitcoin’s explosive price moves, while still forecasting a year‑end target of $90,000.
Bitcoin fell to $76,861 amid falling Treasury yields, weak tech equities and record outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, challenging a near‑term recovery.
October’s ISM production index rose to 59, its strongest reading since 2021, prompting mixed signals for Bitcoin as stronger growth may boost risk appetite while lingering price pressures keep rate‑cut hopes in doubt.
