7% chance+3 pp in 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The S&P 500 fell 3.8% on Thursday, driven by AI and chip stocks, bringing the index within reach of the first market‑wide circuit breaker and spilling over into crypto markets.
Solana Labs' new Leap app launches in beta on iPhone, letting users trade tokenized assets and crypto through a single interface with no launch fees.
VanEck argues the October plunge in mining firms expanding into AI data centers reflects excessive fear, not fundamentals, and sees a buying opportunity.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
The Nasdaq‑100 rose 1.1% following Democratic control of Congress, while Bitcoin surged past $80k and AI‑related hardware stocks fell.
Bitcoin fell to $76,861 amid falling Treasury yields, weak tech equities and record outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, challenging a near‑term recovery.
Despite a 27% drop in AI‑related semiconductor equities, leading AI players have raised more than $200 bn in debt and equity this year, according to multiple sources.
