Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Dec 9, 2026
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
A Federal Reserve survey reveals net tightening of credit standards for nonbank borrowers, raising concerns that reduced financing could dampen Bitcoin investment appetite.
Custodia Bank has petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court ruling that permits regional Federal Reserve branches to refuse payment system access to eligible banks.
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
A $6.36 billion theft from Binance has highlighted the need for the CFTC’s proposed federal registration framework for U.S. leveraged crypto trading.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate range on October 28, with Chair Kevin Warsh citing resilient economic activity and persistent inflation concerns.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rates at 3.75% to 4% despite persistent inflation, leading to a slight dip in Bitcoin prices.
