Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 4, 2026
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Stand With Crypto counted 222 pro‑crypto House winners and 19 pro‑crypto Senate winners, marking a significant shift toward crypto‑friendly lawmakers in the new Congress.
Deputy general counsel Maylea Ma of 1inch expects the SEC, CFTC and Treasury to drive U.S. crypto policy as midterm elections unfold, highlighting the limits of legislative action.
Investor Anthony Pompliano said the AI and Bitcoin acceleration after the midterm elections will be glorious.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.
With over 57 million early votes counted, the 2026 US midterms are poised to shape the fate of the CLARITY Act and broader digital‑asset policy.
Crypto groups have poured $176 million into the 2026 US midterms, and the outcome may reshape the stalled CLARITY Act and oversight of digital assets.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a 74‑78% chance of controlling both chambers in the 2026 midterms, echoing traditional pollsters.
