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Predictions/Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

<-0.3% · Probability, last 30 days7% → 46%
100%50%0%
Volume
$47K
24h volume
$3K
Liquidity
$18K

Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Dec 2, 2026

Outcomes

  • <-0.3%46%
  • -0.3% to -0.1%36%
  • 0.0% to 0.2%13%
  • 0.3% to 0.5%4%
  • 0.9% to 1.1%1%
  • 0.6% to 0.8%<1%
  • ≥1.2%<1%

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.

The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html

If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

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How to read this market

What does the percentage mean?

It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.

Who decides the result?

The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.

Can I bet from COINMAG?

Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG. A COINMAG fee of 1% is added to each bet.

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Price
45.8¢
Shares
21.86
COINMAG fee (1%)
$0.10
Payout if <-0.3%: Yes wins
$21.86
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