<$30: 50% chance+2.5 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve according to the Bitcoin Hashprice Index value displayed for the specified week (the weekly datapoint beginning Monday, 12:00 AM UTC).
If the displayed value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The Bitcoin Hashprice Index value is the US dollar hashprice per petahash per second per day (USD per PH/s per day). To see the value, mouse over the datapoint for the specified week on the chart.
A weekly datapoint is considered finalized once the datapoint for the following week is published. At that point, the prior week's value is considered finalized.
This market will resolve once the weekly datapoint for the specified week is finalized. If the value is unavailable, this market will resolve according to the value as first displayed once data is again available, no later than the end of the second calendar day (ET) after the end of the specified week. If no value for the specified week is displayed by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. No substitute index or data provider will be used.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to Hashrate Index differing from other sources.
Revisions to the value displayed for the specified week made after that datapoint is finalized will not be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is the Bitcoin Hashprice Index chart at https://data.hashrateindex.com/network-data/bitcoin-hashprice-index, with "USD" and "PH/s" selected and the chart period set to "ALL".
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the Bitcoin Hashprice Index as displayed on Hashrate Index. Values from other data providers, independently calculated hashprice estimates, or other indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution source: data.hashrateindex.com/network-data/bitcoin-hashprice-index
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
Bitcoin steadied around $77,000 as open interest rose and US spot ETFs recorded $643 million of outflows, raising questions about the sustainability of its recovery.
Bitcoin’s founding document turns 18, prompting a review of the network’s incentive model as block subsidies dwindle and transaction fees remain a small share of miner revenue.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
Log Scale Investments CEO Mike Flaum argues Strategy's stock is undervalued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and predicts substantial gains during the upcoming bull market.
Anthony Pompliano posted that despite a $6 billion exchange hack, Bitcoin fell less than 5%, which he sees as bullish.
Muneeb Ali argues that uncertainty over quantum computing is deterring institutional investors, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs grow.