August: 85% chance-0.4 pp · 24h
Data: Polymarket, updated every minute. · Ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change.
The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published.
The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically.
Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered.
If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.
Analysis of nine years of data finds Bitcoin’s price moves 2‑3× normal in the first 30 minutes after Fed speeches and economic releases, then returns to baseline.
Bitcoin steadied around $77,000 as open interest rose and US spot ETFs recorded $643 million of outflows, raising questions about the sustainability of its recovery.
Bitcoin’s founding document turns 18, prompting a review of the network’s incentive model as block subsidies dwindle and transaction fees remain a small share of miner revenue.
It is the latest price of the Yes outcome. Traders pay that share of a dollar for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so the price reads as the market's estimate of the chance.
The market resolves by the rules below. Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose the outcome and dispute it during a challenge period.
Yes, where Polymarket is available. You connect your own wallet; the bet goes to Polymarket and the money never passes through COINMAG.
Log Scale Investments CEO Mike Flaum argues Strategy's stock is undervalued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and predicts substantial gains during the upcoming bull market.
Anthony Pompliano posted that despite a $6 billion exchange hack, Bitcoin fell less than 5%, which he sees as bullish.
Muneeb Ali argues that uncertainty over quantum computing is deterring institutional investors, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs grow.