Polymarket’s US‑focused prediction market saw a dramatic expansion in activity between June and October 2026, with monthly trading volume climbing from $4.04 bn to $14.77 bn, according to analytics firm TickerTracker. The 266% increase coincided with the platform’s broader rollout to American users after it reopened a dedicated US exchange in late 2025, following a 2023 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that halted US participation on its global platform.

Volume Drivers and Contract Types

The surge was led by combo contracts, which bundle multiple outcomes into a single wager and generated $8.6 bn—58.2% of October’s total. Sports contracts followed, contributing $4.57 bn (31%). The spike aligns with heightened interest during the FIFA World Cup, where soccer‑related contracts alone moved $1.81 bn in June, up from $85.4 m in May. Political markets also saw a rise around the U.S. midterm elections, with $108.2 m traded in the first ten days of November, though they represented just 2.2% of overall volume.

Regulatory Pressure Intensifies

Despite the growth, Polymarket remains under scrutiny from both federal and state regulators. The CFTC launched an investigation earlier in the year, and Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff urged the agency to examine claims that the platform paid influencers for fabricated trades. Polymarket responded that it is conducting a comprehensive audit of promotional content to ensure compliance with disclosure rules. In September, New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket, alleging its sports contracts violate state gambling laws—a claim echoing broader state actions against prediction markets, including against competitor Kalshi. The CFTC has defended its jurisdiction, pursuing legal action in ten states, and the dispute may ultimately be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Funding Round and Valuation

Amid the regulatory backdrop, Polymarket is pursuing a $1 bn funding round that would value the company at $21 bn post‑money. Investment firm 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. serves as a partner, is reported to lead the round with a $300 m contribution. The capital raise aims to support continued product development and legal defenses as the platform expands its US user base.

What to Watch Next

Key developments to monitor include the outcome of the New York AG lawsuit and any further CFTC actions, which could shape the regulatory framework for prediction markets nationwide. Additionally, Polymarket’s ability to sustain its volume growth as the initial World Cup hype fades will be a test of user retention. Finally, the progress of the $1 bn funding round and any strategic partnerships announced thereafter could signal the platform’s longer‑term positioning in the evolving US crypto landscape.